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MORNING COMMENTS WEEK OF 5/01/00-5/05/00

 

5/05/00

 

5/04/00

Note: The Tulips AM market commentary will return from its month long hiatus tonight (May 4th)...in the meantime, a few observations, both long- and short-term: overnight futures indicate a bounce at the open, a bounce that may be given sustenance if pre-Greenspan jitters give way to post-Greenspan relief, but we would not view any rally that develops today as an opportunity to engage in the national pastime of 'buying on the dip', instead we would use the opportunity to sell into the rally.

The market's current leg down is likely to include a retest of the lows: for the Dow Industrials, a retest of the March low of 9731, for the NASDAQ Composite, a return visit to the October lows of 2600-2800.  Rallies may develop at these levels, but in all likelihood these rallies will prove to be short-lived.

The inability of the Fed's rate hikes to date to slow the economy indicates the pain is likely to get much worse before it gets better.  The current consumer spending driven economic boom is unlikely to slow to a sustainable pace until the wealth effect is tamed--an event which will not occur until the two principle drivers of the wealth effect, a booming labor market and above-historical trend stock market gains, go into reverse.  When the current rate hike cycle ends, the major averages will likely be trading within their historical valuation ranges--a level which is still a considerable distance below the market's current levels.

5/03/00

 

5/02/00

 

5/01/00

 

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Last modified: April 02, 2001

Published By Tulips and Bears LLC