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ARCHIVE:    JUNE 1999-FEBRUARY 2000  

An InvestorLinks article
distributed every market day.

Oracle Corp  (NASDAQ: ORCL)
Market Call™ for February 14, 2000
Contributed by Mark Seleznov, TrendTrader.com.

The purpose of this Market Call section is to educate readers in technical analysis patterns and indicators. As with all investment information, you need to research information and consult your financial advisor before initiating any strategies that are contained in Market Call.

Also, you must realize that as with all trading strategies, opinions can change quickly depending on market conditions and developments.

This column tries to present historical examples, potential set ups, and examples of entry and exit strategies.

Trading on Expectations

The short term trading game requires planning, discipline, and money management. When a trade is entered, there should be visualization as to how that stock will perform over the next few minutes, hours, and days.

If you are trading a breakout to the upside, the stock should rise and not look back. If you are playing moving average crossovers, the expectation is a trend is beginning and the stock should continue up or down for a time.

The MACD indicator is used to identify changes in momentum and after a long downtrend or uptrend when momentum declines, the trend should change and not reverse.

A trader can be successful with 50% winners and 50% losers if they adhere to the adage of cutting loses and letting profits run. I think you would be happy with a 50% batting average if your average loss was $500.00 and your average win was $1,000. This does not mean that each trade must wait for a $500.00 loser and each winner should be cut short to only $1,000.

A divergence occurring can also present a good trading opportunity.

Let's look at Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL).

Last Friday’s Market Call was ORCL for a breakout pattern.

I wrote "The resistance in ORCL is at 62 5/8, which was the all time high on January 3, 2000. Today, February 10, 2000, ORCL moved up close to that resistance. If ORCL breaks to new highs tomorrow, I want to be long the stock.

I would Buy ORCL on a up move in the morning to 62 �. I would not buy ORCL unless in hit 62 �. If I enter at 62 �, I would place a stop at 60 �."

ORCL did not trade as expectations. The opening and initial move was as expected, but ORCL reversed and broke down quickly.

After the first hour, ORCL kept declining with lower lows and lower highs. By the end of the day, ORCL closed at 59 11/16 near the low of the day. The stop was hit and there is a losing trade.

ORCL is now at a critical support level in the 59-area price range. It looks like ORCL may break below support at 59.

I would enter a Short in ORCL at 58 � with the expectation that ORCL breaks support and keeps moving down. If there is not an immediate continuation down, and ORCL has a move opposite Friday’s, I would exit the Short quickly at 60 �. The expectation is a clean break with ORCL moving several points lower.

Chart courtesy of
 


Interested in adding Market Call to your website?
Click here for details: Market Call Information

Mark A. Seleznov is a General Securities Principal and Managing Partner of Trend Trader, LLC, a NASD, SIPC broker/dealer firm located in Scottsdale, Arizona. A professional trader for over 25 years, Mark was a Market Maker on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, a Retail Registered Representative, and futures trader. Mark is an author and recognized expert in equity Day Trading. He conducts seminars in Equity Day Trading and offers his firm traders training and support. If his firm holds any positions in the public companies he writes about, it will be noted at the bottom of his article.

Market Calls is a daily syndicated column on trading by Mark A. Seleznov, Managing Partner of Trend Trader, LLC. For information on obtaining Market Calls for your web site, newspapers, or publication, contact
Trend Trader, LLC at 602-948-1146

Disclaimer: Trading in securities may not be suitable for all individuals. Consult your broker or other professional to determine your suitability. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. The advice given above is of a general nature and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell the referenced security.

 
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Last modified: March 17, 2001

Published By Tulips and Bears LLC